Winnipeg Economic Digest Vol. 2, Issue 4

Bottom Line / Summary

Several factors come into play when evaluating potential employees. For employers struggling to find staff, it is important to understand the current population, labour market outcomes and how both are projected to change over time.

Manitoba is a growing province, which is heavily dependent on net immigration for population growth. [1] During the period of 2000 to 2022, Manitoba’s population grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just under one per cent.  

Statistics Canada’s baseline population projections for Manitoba sees our one per cent CAGR continue through the projection period to 2043. In this scenario, our population is projected to continue aging, with the youngest part of our population (aged 0 to 24) having a 0.7 per cent CAGR, while those aged 65+ have a CAGR of 1.7 per cent. 

The overall population growth is projected to come from immigration, since natural increase is projected to be lower than interprovincial migration through 2043. Immigrants thus will represent an important and growing share of Manitoba’s population and workforce and will be particularly important when filling labour market gaps.

Immigrants represent an important and growing share of Manitoba’s population and workforce.

Analysis

Manitoba Population History

Since Manitoba launched the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) in the late 1990’s, our population has been growing. In the July 1, 2000, population measurement Manitoba had a population of 1,147,313, according to Statistics Canada’s Table 17-10-0005-01. By July 1, 2022, Manitoba’s population had risen to 1,409,223 (see figure 1). [2]  This represents a CAGR of just under one per cent.

Figure 1: Manitoba July 1 Population by Age Group [2000 - 2022]

There are also very different growth rates by age groups over time (see figure 2).

• From 2000 through 2011, the core working age group (45 to 64) had the highest growth rate.  
• This switched to the group aged 65+ from 2011 through 2021.  
• In 2022, the group aged 18 to 24 had a sharp increase, which may not be sustainable.  
• From about 2012 to 2019, those aged 25 to 44 had been growing strongly. After weakening for two years, it strengthened again in 2022.

Figure 2: Manitoba Annual Population Growth Rate by Age Groups

If we consider Manitoba’s population estimates of the components of annual demographic growth, the main drag on Manitoba’s population growth is net interprovincial migration (IPM). [3]  The main component of our population growth continues to be net immigration. [4] See figure 3.

Figure 3: Manitoba's population increase components (1999/2000 through 2022/2023)

Over the period 1999/2000 to 2022/2023, natural increase is often more offset by net IPM. [5]  This means that without net immigration, half the time Manitoba’s population would have been falling rather than growing over the last 24 years (figure 4).

Figure 4: Manitoba's Natural Increase less net Interprovincial Migration (1999/2000 through 2022/2023)

Manitoba's Population Projection

Statistics Canada’s April 27, 2023 population projection for Provinces and Territories (2023 to 2043), medium growth scenario 1 shows Manitoba growing, but more slowly for young people (figure 5).

Figure 5: Manitoba Population Projection, Medium 1 Projection, Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0057-01

The scenario has a one per cent CAGR, with those 65+ growing faster at a 1.7% CAGR, and those below 24 growing slower at 0.7 per cent (table 1). This means an aging population and workforce. We need to bring more of those aged 65+ into the workforce, [6]  work diligently to boost the population of younger people and continue to work to boost labour force participation rates of both immigrants and Canadians. [7]

Table 1: Manitoba Population Projection CAGR by Age Group

When we consider where this population growth is projected to come from (2023 to 2043), immigration is key, since natural increase is less than interprovincial migration. Without immigration, Manitoba’s population would fall every year (figure 6).

Figure 6: Manitoba population growth components, Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0058-01

Manitoba Labour Market Outlook

As one would expect, supply and demand for labour varies by occupation. The Manitoba government produces a medium-term Labour Market Outlook each year for 500 occupations. This outlook helps identify occupations expected to face a shortage of workers to meet labour demand. Similarly, this helps to identify occupations where there are too many workers for projected labour demand (see tables 2, and 3 which represent 4 per cent of Manitoba’s 500 four-digit NOC occupations). 

Table 2: Top 10 occupations requiring more staff than is expected to be supplied

Table 3: Bottom 10 occupations where staff will need to retrain for other occupations

Some workers will be able to retrain from occupations where there is expected to be a surplus to those projected to have shortages. Still, even if every worker in a surplus situation retrains for one of the occupations where we have a shortage, a net gap is expected to average more than six thousand positions per year.  [8]

Manitoba needs more workers from outside the province, or the country. Since net interprovincial migration is forecast to be continually negative during the forecast period, this realistically means Manitoba employers must consider hiring workers from outside of Canada to fill some of the open positions.

Note Economic Development Winnipeg’s Talent & Workforce Development team is working with a variety of partners to help employers with international hiring. For example, see Martin Cash’s November 17, 2023 Winnipeg Free Press article, “Employers heading to France, Morocco in Recruitment Mission.”

End Notes

1. Net immigration = immigration – emigration.
2. Please note that this includes all forms of population increase and decrease; natural increase (Births – Deaths), net immigration, net interprovincial migration, net non-permanent residents, and any residual effects.
3. The source is Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0008-01.
4. Typically, net non-permanent residents (NPR) play a small role in Manitoba’s population growth, but this has changed in the last two years, with the surge of Ukrainian refugees playing a key role in (temporarily) boosting this category of population growth.
5. Natural Increase = births – deaths.
6. Typically, older Manitobans exit the workforce in increasing numbers when they reach aged 60, so any policy work in this space would need to be particularly nuanced if it were to have any degree of efficacy.
7. For other scenarios, see population projections.
8. There are 500 occupations that the province has estimated in its latest Labour Market Outlook. See Labour Gaps | Manitoba Labour Market Outlook | Economic and Labour Market Intelligence | Economic Development, Investment, Trade and Natural Resources | Province of Manitoba (gov.mb.ca).