We’re doing OK so far, but bracing for the worst, especially the big guys.

That’s the key message from Probe Research’s annual survey of Manitoba business leaders— which couldn’t have come at a weirder time. Probe, working with Economic Development Winnipeg (EDW), surveys a random and representative sample of 200 Manitoba businesses every year.    

We were polling in February and March, when the on-again-off-again tariff psychodrama, as Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly called it, dominated the business community’s thoughts.

Here’s the bad news:

• The proportion of businesses who expect to be worse off next year has doubled to 31 per cent since our last survey in 2024. That figure is higher among big firms (those with 50+ employees).
• More than one-quarter of businesses said the tariffs will have a very negative impact on their operation. 
• Twice as many (54 per cent) said tariffs will be very bad for Manitoba’s economy. About 45 per cent of businesses have or might postpone investments, and another 30 per cent are delaying hiring.

As a small business owner, I see myself in these results— the sense that things were going pretty good and now who the heck knows? These results also caused me to reflect on a really interesting roundtable conversation EDW hosted recently with senior business leaders to better understand the potential effects of the tariffs. We shared what’s keeping us up at night— the general contractor grappling with suppliers changing prices by the minute, consulting firms like mine worrying about the trickle-down effects of a deep recession, the transportation sector completely reconfiguring its plans.

The folks at this roundtable were definitely not part of the 13 per cent of business leaders who think the Trump administration will actually be good for the Canadian economy (82 per cent said it will be very bad). But we talked about ways this threat might be the kick in the butt Canada needs to solve some nagging issues like our low productivity, interprovincial trade barriers and even our anemic east-west power grid.

Like that round-table conversation, Probe’s business leaders survey uncovered a few bright spots:

• Businesses, especially ones in Winnipeg, are coming into this turbulent period in reasonably good shape. About two-thirds said last year was a good year, or at least about the same as usual. That’s pretty much back to pre-pandemic levels.
• Companies are having an easier time finding qualified staff. This is still a problem for about 58 per cent of firms, but that’s also almost back to the pre-pandemic baseline.
• We have modest confidence – perhaps more than business innately has in an NDP government – in Premier Wab Kinew’s ability to manage this crisis, and the economy in general.

April 2 is yet another will-he-won’t-he tariff deadline, and our data shows a Manitoba business community that’s worried, but ready to weather the storm.

Read more about the Manitoba Business Leaders Index in this recent Winnipeg Free Press article. 

Thank you to Mary Agnes Welch and Probe Research for being a valued partner and supporting the work we do every day at Economic Development Winnipeg. To explore how a partnership with EDW can benefit your business, contact our Corporate Partnerships team [email protected].